Cooking a Thanksgiving feast for your friends and family will cost less than last year but will still be more expensive than before the pandemic. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey provides a snapshot of the average cost of this year’s classic holiday feast for 10, which is $58.08 or about $5.80 per person.
This is a 5% decrease from 2023, which was 4.5% lower than 2022. Two years of declines don’t erase dramatic increases that led to a record high cost of $64.06 in 2022. Despite the encouraging momentum, a Thanksgiving meal is still 19% higher than it was in 2019, which highlights the impact inflation has had on food prices – and farmers’ costs – since the pandemic.
The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – helped bring down the overall cost of dinner. The average price for a 16-pound turkey is $25.67. That is $1.60 per pound, down 6% from last year.
Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices Nov. 1-7, before most grocery store chains began featuring whole frozen turkeys at sharply lower prices. According to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data, the average per-pound feature price for whole frozen turkeys declined further during the second week of November. Consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving.
“The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson. “The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal.”
The shopping list for Farm Bureau’s informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, all in quantities sufficient to serve a gathering of 10.
Most ingredients in the survey saw a decline in prices, including fresh vegetables. The drop in prices reflects price volatility in crops this year. The cost of whole milk dropped more than 14%. Favorable weather contributed to the decline in milk pricing. It is important to note, however, that milk prices vary significantly between regions in the U.S.
Items like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing both saw an 8% increase because higher labor costs, among other drivers, are increasing the cost of processed food. Cranberry prices increased almost 12% year-over-year. In 2023, cranberries had the second largest decrease in price of any products in our basket at 18%. The increase this year puts cranberry prices closer to historic norms and, excluding last year, is the least expensive year since 2015.
“We should all be thankful that we live in a country with such an abundant food supply,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation.”
“America has one of the most affordable food supplies in the world. In order to maintain that, we need a strong farm bill which enables Americans to pursue their dreams without worrying about feeding their families,” Duvall said. “A new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who raise crops and livestock ensures farmers can survive tough economic times and continue to supply food for America’s families, not just for the holidays, but year-round.”
In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the Farm Bureau price survey also includes boneless ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans, in an expanded menu. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost by $19.26, to $77.34.
This year’s national average cost was calculated using surveys completed with pricing data from all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices in person and online using grocery store apps and websites. They looked for the best possible prices without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or combined purchase deals.
The AFBF Thanksgiving dinner survey was first conducted in 1986. The informal survey provides a record of comparative holiday meal costs over the years. Farm Bureau’s classic survey menu has remained unchanged since 1986 to allow for consistent price comparisons.
AFBF analysis revealed regional differences in the cost of the meal. The cost for the classic meal was the most affordable in the South at $56.81, followed by the Northeast at $57.36, the Midwest at $58.90, and then a significant jump in the West at $67.05. The expanded meal (classic meal plus boneless ham, Russet potatoes and green beans) was the most affordable in the South at $81.07, the Northeast at $81.37, the Midwest at $83.04, and least affordable in the West at $93.33.
